Probable maximum loss by return period
AEP sits at or above OEP at every return period: a year’s total can’t be smaller than its largest loss. With 0.35 loss events a year, the two run close: $3.9M and $4.1M at 1-in-200. Check: a 1.0% chance a year that total loss tops $2.5M, the AEP’s 1-in-100 point.